A Graceful Exit

May 15th; Buderim girl and solo yachtswoman, Jessica Watson sailed into Sydney Harbour, three days shy of her seventeenth birthday. In time, she would become, in betting parlance, an ‘unbackable favourite’ for Young Australian of the Year honours. On May 15th though, the Amelia Earhart of the sea had just completed her round-the-world sailing trip, entering the Heads in the early afternoon of a sunny Sydney Saturday.

Channel Seven, Nine and Ten broadcast her arrival live. A documentary was to follow. A book deal had reportedly already been signed. She was a girl with the world at her feet, as she started to get her land legs back. A little proppy at first, she soon got into stride. For all the vocal critics who had said she was too young, who criticised her for not sailing far enough into the Northern Hemisphere to qualify for having sailed ‘round-the-world,’ this was not their day. It was a day shared by Jessica with admirers of those who follow their dreams, who rise to the challenge and succeed where others before them have failed. It was a day shared with her mum Julie, dad Roger, siblings Tom, Hannah and Emily and best friend Pamela – as well as Kevin Rudd.

Rudd happened to make it to the Sydney Opera House where a large group of admirers had gathered. A Prime Minister with the challenges he faced could not let such an opportunity pass him by. Yet that Saturday not all would go according to plan for Rudd, and soon after his speech wrapped up, he would have been wishing he had not even played a supporting role.

"Jess,” he said, “Welcome back home to Australia. You know something...in the eyes of all Australians you now stand tall as our newest Australian hero." Jessica would have none of it. As she stepped up to the podium, she began by saying; “I’m actually going to disagree with what the Prime Minister just said. I don’t consider myself a hero. I’m an ordinary girl who believed in a dream. You don’t have to be someone special...to achieve anything amazing. You just have to have a dream, believe in it and work hard.”

Rudd seemed to step further into the background. Such was his luck of late, nothing, not even this day, seemed to be going to plan. A sixteen year-old, ineligible to vote, had taken centre stage. The crowd cheered. They believed she’d broken a record, no matter what officialdom said. In the month of June, Rudd would go on to set a record of his own – he would become the first Prime Minister to be dumped by his own party in his first term in office.

Fast forward to Wednesday, June 23. Canberra in winter. And what a cold winter it would turn out to be for the Prime Minister. His role would be taken from him, not by the people that had elected him not three years earlier but rather by his own party, which seemed obsessed with polling data and popularity as the sole purpose of high office.

Sky News would keep thousands of viewers entertained throughout the night of June 23, with reporters standing outside of Parliament House looking in. The cold night air was visible as they spoke, with scarves drawn tightly around their necks and gloves firmly set on chilly hands.

Back in the Sky News studio, political commentators sat in front of the cameras as the broadcast of what was unfolding continued through the night. Never before had a phone conversation that could not be heard, between journalist and Labor Party contact, appeared so enticing, enthralling. Host David Speers was directing the conversation in the studio. Or more likely, he was being directed by the person whose voice he could hear in the microphone he had fitted to his ear. Speers switched back to Ashleigh Gillon outside Parliament House. It was like a game of football with a commentary team, two competitors...and only one winner.

No matter how many visitors Rudd had to his office that night, he would feel anything but popular. Alone and lonely, he would appear that night to confront the media, awaiting anxiously for any news from within the walls of Parliament House. Rudd began:

“Earlier this evening, Julia Gillard came to see me and has requested a ballot for the leadership of the Labor Party. As a result of that request I will be writing to the secretary of the caucus to convene a special meeting of the caucus at 9 o'clock in the morning...a number of factional leaders within the Labor Party no longer support my leadership...I was elected by the people of Australia to do a job. I was not elected by the factional leaders of Australia, of the Australian Labor Party to do a job - though they may be seeking to do a job on me, that's a separate matter.”

Initially, it had been the ABC that had broken the story. According to Chris Uhlmann, there was shock and awe amongst ministers at the speed and voracity with which the move on the leadership had occurred. But even so, Uhlmann wrote; “Although Mr. Rudd looks likely to survive the challenge, news of the attempted coup will undoubtedly weaken him...On Friday, Mr. Rudd will travel to Canada for the ‘Group of 20’ leaders’ meeting.”

They say hindsight is 20-20 vision. Rudd did anything but survive the challenge, and that Friday he would not leave home for Canada and the G-20. An evening can be a long time in politics.

Gillard was the sole nominee for the leadership of the Federal Labor Party that morning of June 24. Though Rudd may have sought support from his colleagues, it was not forthcoming. Australians had not even had the chance to vote in their first female Prime Minister. Paul Howes of the Australian Workers' Union, and other factional leaders such as Bill Shorten of the Victorian Right, had ensured she was installed with their support. Rudd's non-factional background had done him no favours.

As Rudd said farewell to the people that had shown a preference to him over Howard, he gave what could well be his most heartfelt and genuine speech of his Prime Ministership. In part, he said:

“I’m proud of the fact, and some people have probably never heard of this one, that we have a National Organ Transplant Authority. As somebody who borrowed someone else’s aortic valve I feel a particular responsibility for that. There’s nothing like having a bit of somebody else in you, it focusses the mind and in my case also focusses the heart. What I’m really pleased about in the last two months is the organ donation rates for the first time have started to rise. People now are getting transplants because we chose to make a difference. That’s the funny thing about health isn’t it, it has an effect on you.”

Why couldn’t he have spoken that way more often? The people may have gotten to like him after all, even forgiven his use of words like “blubbered,” “zip,” and who could forget “fair suck of the sauce bottle?”

He was to finish with a word about his wife. “The work Therese has done in the community is formidable. And whether it’s disabilities, homelessness, UNICEF. This is a very good person...and one of life’s eternal mysteries is why she ever married me in the first place.”

And he was gone.

Seven months. That’s how long it took for the face of Australian politics to change. An unmarried, childless 48 year-old had replaced the man that lacked the common touch, with constituents and colleagues alike. Kevin ’07 had been unable to convert his popularity from that election year into something that his party could take to the 2010 election with confidence. Julia Gillard must have been aware that the possibility of a similar fate awaiting her was strong. Her tenure as Prime Minister and Federal Labor leader depended on her ability to speak to the crowd, the constituents, not at them. Would we see the fakery of spin or the believability of substance?

The 17th July gave us all a clear indication as to what the voters had to look forward to. Whether Gillard spoke slowly because she wanted to ensure clarity, or whether it was to appeal to the lowest common denominator, one could not be sure. Whether she repeated herself because she had heard that listeners will only remember fifteen percent of what one says, or whether she was determined to be annoying, the Mrs. Marsh of politics, one could be anything but certain. Suffice to say everyone recalled the term 'moving forward' after she announced the federal election would take place on Saturday, August 21st.

Here's a little of what the Prime Minister had to say:

“...I seek a mandate from the Australian people to move Australia forward...this election is about the choice as to whether we move Australia forward or go back...Moving forward, of course, requires conviction...and moving forward means moving forward with plans...Moving forward means moving forward with budget surpluses...Moving forward also means moving forward with stronger protection...Under my leadership, we will move forward, we'll move forward together with a sustainable Australia...this is a moment for all of us to strengthen, to innovate, to learn - in short, to move forwards...”

This was certainly no “Ich bin ein Berliner” speech. According to Tony Abbott, Julia Gillard represented a different salesman, but the same dud product. The problem with moving forward was that the voters were uncertain as to where they were being taken. Why? For what? And to whose benefit?

The election awaited both her and Tony Abbott. And wouldn’t the end result prove a surprise to all? Was it possible the move forward could be stalled before the journey had begun?

Going, going...

Tony Abbott seemed to be on a roll. Kevin Rudd’s popularity was continuing to go south and Julia Gillard, all smiles and jocularity, was having to answer questions about the leadership and her aspirations for Rudd’s job pre-election. A comedian was in the audience, according to Gillard, but the front page photo of her seemed to be airbrushed to make her look ‘prime ministerial,' whatever that meant.

But as the government and the opposition continued to journey towards the election, a bend in the road appeared. Abbott was managing the turn well until he came across Kerry O’Brien and a night on air on The 7.30 Report.

All started well enough until O’Brien asked Abbott how he could promise no new taxes one month and the next month repudiate those comments by promising to increase taxes to fund his paid parental leave scheme. Abbott:

“Well, again Kerry, I know politicians are gonna be judged on everything they say, but sometimes, in the heat of discussion, you go a little bit further than you would if it was an absolutely calm, considered, prepared, scripted remark, which is one of the reasons why the statements that need to be taken absolutely as gospel truth is those carefully prepared scripted remarks.”

Oops. Abbott had just handed the Rudd government more ammunition than he could ever have dreamed of. 'Phoney Tony' was the term being bandied about in the course of the day. And on the very same day, the ALP had rushed to air an ad using that term to say Abbott could not be trusted.

But Abbott's blunder was nothing compared to a report a week earlier. A new month had begun and the paper had just been thrown out the window of the oncoming car. It landed somewhere on the front nature-strip. What was news that fine and sunny late Autumn morning? For one, the insulation program seemd to be anything but forgotten.

The Weekend Australian got straight to the point:

“Officials in Kevin Rudd and Peter Garrett’s departments assessed the risk of death or injury under the government’s insulation program to be ‘extreme’ three times in the past three months before the first of four young workers was killed.”

Spokespeople for Garrett as well as for Rudd were reported as saying neither the minister nor the Prime Minister had seen the risk assessment. This seemed to show the insulation program and the deficiencies in its handling and delivery, was anything but ‘dead.’

Who knew what would follow in the coming months? Rudd’s only hope could be that surely it could not get any worse. Surely.

If Tony Abbott was to be believed programs such as insulation were unnecessary at best. That same week, the Opposition Leader had been in the federal electorate of Sturt, marginally Liberal and held by Chris Pyne...for now. He’d been busy inculcating into the minds of children the idea that climate change had little if anything to do with the activities of man, and was anything but a recent phenomenon. As Michael Owen reported in The Weekend Australian, “climate change happens all the time and it is not man that drives those climate changes back in history," referring to the Ice Age and the Dark Ages, Caesar, and Jesus of Nazareth.

What a fun lesson for a Year Five or Year Six student. Yet the question had been raised – if Abbott was close to the truth, then what benefit is obtained from government initiatives such as the insulation program?

As the weekend came to an end, lo and behold, who should be on the TV screen but Tony Abbott? A new liberal ‘campaign ad’ had been launched, with Abbott explaining to the people he had a plan. The unofficial federal election campaign had begun.

On the Monday of 10th May, the media had seen the AC Nielsen poll, published in Fairfax newspapers. The Newspoll had been proven to be anything but a ‘rogue poll’, as some media commentators had hoped only a week earlier. Rudd was in trouble.

Fran Kelly was lucky enough to have Julia Gillard as company that Monday morning. With headphones on and her best and most non-descript answers at the ready, Gillard was placed in the difficult but perhaps not unwelcome position of having to answer questions about the leadership...the leadership of the federal government.

Although Abbott's 'gospel truth gaffe' was generous, it proved not to be enough to help Rudd escape the abyss in which he now found himself.

As the days and weeks went by, it was looking like a potential position, post-politics, with the United Nations, was becoming an attractive proposition for Kevin Rudd. Was this the future he had set for himself? One wondered.

Although President Obama had declared him to be a humble man, surely Rudd’s ego and need for vindication would not allow him to take the easy road. An election victory would provide Rudd with a moment in the sun, a moment to savour. But the question remained as to whether he would be given that opportunity. Going quietly did not seem in his nature. Going was now a distinct possibility.